After increasing the tariffs imposed on US $ 200 billion of Chinese exports to the US from 10% to 25%, the United States has further threatened to start relevant procedures for levying 25% of the remaining US $ 325 billion on Chinese exports to the United States. Recently announced the list. At the same time, the eleventh round of China-US high-level economic and trade consultations ended in Washington, and the two sides agreed to continue the consultations.
While threatening to raise the tariff bar on all Chinese exports to the United States, and at the same time showing its willingness to continue negotiations, the United States is still trying to use soft and hard "two hands" to pressure China's limits to obtain higher asking prices at the negotiating table. However, after a careful analysis of Liu He ’s position on the media after the eleventh round of consultations, Liu He, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China, deputy prime minister of the State Council, and Chinese leader of the comprehensive economic dialogue between China and the United States, should be very clear: China has three cores for economic and trade negotiations Concerns, namely the elimination of all additional tariffs, trade procurement figures should be realistic and improve the balance of the text. China will never make concessions on the bottom line of these principles. Therefore, no matter how the United States “limits pressure”, the past has been invalid for China, and it must be invalid now and in the future.
Looking back on more than a year of Sino-U.S. Economic and trade negotiations, the two sides have made important progress and repeated iterations. China regards these as normal small twists and turns in the national negotiations and has always promoted the negotiations in good faith because China knows that there is no winner in the trade war. Increasing tariffs is not conducive to both China and the United States, nor to the world; cooperation is the only correct choice for China and the United States. However, cooperation is principled. China's three core concerns are, in fact, making the "red line" and "bottom line" of economic and trade consultations public. The United States will never allow the US to challenge and surpass it.
If the United States insists on increasing tariffs, China will inevitably counteract it. After more than a year of economic and trade frictions, China has stood the test in all aspects. Not only has its pressure resistance greatly increased, but its response has also become more mature and more determined. Because the Chinese side has long seen clearly that the imposition of tariffs by the United States is actually a "self-harm" strategic gamble that moves against the current and goes against public opinion, and will be futile. According to a research report released by the US "Global Trading Partner" consulting firm in February, if a 25% tariff is imposed on US $ 250 billion of Chinese exports to the United States, one year will result in the loss of 934,000 jobs in the United States, one in four. U.S. households ’spending increases by $ 767 per year; if a 25% tariff is imposed on the remaining $ 325 billion of Chinese products, one year will result in the loss of 2.1 million jobs in the United States. $ 2,000.
As the side of the trade war forced to fight back, China's economy will inevitably be under pressure due to the increase in tariffs, but this pressure is completely controllable.
From the perspective of economic structure, the contribution rate of consumption to China's GDP growth has reached 76.2%, and the export dependence has dropped to 17.9%. Domestic demand is and will eventually become a strong support for China to cope with the uncertainty of the external environment.
From the perspective of trade, in the first four months of this year, Sino-US trade volume fell by 11.2%, of which exports to the United States fell by 4.8%, and imports from the United States fell by 26.8%, which shows that the US exports to China are more replaceable. During the same period, the trade surplus between China and the United States expanded by 10.5%, which indicates that the imposition of tariffs will not fundamentally solve the problem of China-US trade imbalance, and will only make American consumers bear higher costs.
In addition, the proportion of trade with the United States in China's total foreign trade value fell to 11.5% in the first four months, while China's import and export volume with major trading partners such as the EU and ASEAN maintained rapid growth. In particular, China ’s trade volume with countries along the “Belt and Road” grew by 9.1%, which was 4.8 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of China ’s foreign trade. This means that China's foreign trade partners are increasingly diversified, and its ability to resist foreign trade is constantly increasing. Even if the United States imposes tariffs on all Chinese products exported to the United States, China can divert a significant portion of its trade with the United States by adjusting the international market structure.
Therefore, the United States has nothing to fear from extreme pressure. On the contrary, the greater the pressure, the stronger China's determination. As for the trade war, China has long stated its attitude: it is unwilling to fight, but it is not afraid to fight, and has to fight when necessary. In the face of both American hard and soft, China has already given the answer: talk, the door is open; fight, stay with you to the end. What kind of battle has the Chinese nation experienced after more than 5,000 years of ups and downs? !! In the great process of national rejuvenation, there will inevitably be difficulties, dangers and even rough seas. The U.S.-led trade war with China is just a hurdle in China's development process. It is no big deal. China is bound to turn crisis into an opportunity to test its own capabilities and make the country stronger.
No matter how the external situation changes, it is important for China to do its own thing, continue to deepen reform, expand opening up, and achieve high-quality economic development. The next step for the United States is to talk, fight, or take other actions. China has already prepared a policy toolbox and is ready for a comprehensive response. This is as President Xi Jinping said, China ’s economy is a sea, not a small pond; a squall can overturn a small pond, but it cannot overturn the sea; after numerous storms, the sea is still there!